100 Million App Downloads Obsession Debate 2015

100 Million App Downloads #Obsession #Debate

Just because India is about to reach a Billion Cellphone users, here is the usual maths that's been deployed by those who are making sure they hit 10% of these users i.e. 100m

There isn't much logic, but pure love/passion/devotion of doing this - cause finally its the year of mobile, my competitors are doing it, we have been thinking of doing it - and we need to do it now!

Fair enough, I get the excitement. And, I am not saying everyone is thinking the same - a majority of the people are - maybe their business requires them to do so.

Let's dig deeper on this for a moment :

Apple App store took 7 years to come close to 25b downloads across all apps put together. You are just starting off, and to hit 100m app install base in a country like India where the device mix is quite varied - you might get there in 6 - 9 months.

Active Users Vs Installed Users -

 not always all those who have a phone will be online (this will crash the airwaves); similarly not all those who installed your app will be on it all the day. Let's say about 2% are active of the 100m in a day = that's about 2m of that 2m the number of people using your app maybe about 1% = that's about 20,000 active users in a day on your app. That's still way less than what you might have on mWeb or Desktop or Tablet.

Increasing App Density on the phone -

 yes, most of us have higher storage capacity in our phones now. But that hasn't improved our ability to recall apps in our Brains! Based on this slide - an average Indian will use about 7 apps in a Day; I bet a good 80% will be games/productivity/chat apps. But that too is changing.

The good side - 

everyone in the mobile advertising eco system. Even if you are paying INR 50 per download x 100m = That's about INR 5b of advertising money and multiply that with the number of advertisers who want to hit that volume - let's say the top 10 online spenders = you are talking about a INR 50b advertising industry been created out of no where.We are short of a billion dollar industry - which strangely by this straight maths make the digital advertising market look very interesting. But this is hypothetically speaking....and you get the point.

The changing side -

 a lot of Indians are using their mobile phone to access the internet or the connected world for the first time. And, this changes the game in the way users embrace technology. The western hemisphere always had access to technology. The masses of this region are now getting the same. This could be the guy next door; or the vegetable vendor or your Uber Driver - see the varied income base?

So what used to be a INR 30,000 desktop; is now INR 10,000 or less smart phone with pre loaded apps to make the first steps easy...just how Windows PC's used to come with Starter Kit.

To conclude/debate 

 for a lot of business's out there Apps makes a lot of sense, and we will see the eco-system go between Apps > Web > Apps to a point where there won't be must of distinction between the either...am guessing another 2 - 3 years.

Does it makes sense to chase the 100m number - to some extent yes; but after you and couple of others in the country have got their app installed - the challenge will be - engagement / re-engagement....