The Slow Death of Smartphone Lust

As I made the long walk to my local AT&T store, head bowed and with my enormous, pocket-bursting, infinitely annoying, about-to-be-returned Google Nexus 6 device in my hand, I considered the current state of the high-end smartphone. Physical limits had been reached. Gadget lust – such an enormous driver of smartphone purchases in Western countries the past five years – was dead. We’d collectively demanded the best, and we got the best – and now we don’t want, nor need, any more purported improvements. The “phablet” was a cruel joke played on me and those who suffering from the affluenza that comes from needing the newest, latest, biggest, shiniest device on the market. Let us consider how we got here.

Moore’s Law may be continuing to drive untold smartphone innovation under the hood, but increasingly it’s the hood itself that matters. Decreasing returns to scale abound in both hardware and software. Our period of exploding innovation in both device form factors and in the software that powers them has seen its peak, and many consumers are slowly facing the reality that the phone they’re carrying right now does pretty much everything they’ll want or need for the next two, three and even four years.

Even a mere 2 years ago, an impending iPhone version launch was something that drove the industry (particularly smartphone OEMs) into preemptive conniptions, terrified that new features within the software would render useless whatever great ideas they’d thrown on their roadmaps for the upcoming year, simply by virtue of Apple’s size, scale and media clout. No longer. Each generation of iPhone, Galaxy S or HTC One is only marginally more impressive from a hardware standpoint than the one before it, if at all. They tried sexy curves, titanium housing, pumped-up speakers and the aforementioned “extra inch of screen” in an endless set of combinations, yet at the core we’re all (happily) left with touch screens that work, really nice cameras, excellent software that updates frequently (Android or iOS) and a ton of apps to choose from. Who needs the next thing when the thing you already have is effectively the same thing?

Now, I've been in the mobile industry long enough to remember when the 2-year replacement cycle for one's next phone was rigidly obeyed. With the advent of the smartphone, and with it the advent of smartphone lust, this shrank to 18 months, then even to a 12 months or less for those willing to go contract-free, or who could somehow convince their employer of the "workplace necessity" of having whatever the hottest device on the market happened to be.

I predict a fast return to the two-year cycle, if we’re not there already. We'll replace our phones because screens have cracked, or because power buttons are sticking - not because of smartphone lust. Lust no longer scales. Whatever the next Apple, Samsung, Motorola or HTC device happens to be, it will probably have a 5-inch screen, won’t be a “phablet”, will add a little processing power, tack on a few more megapixels for the camera, play with some incremental curved edges and maybe throw in a feature or two that might be interesting once we figure out how to use it (and why we need to).

Me, I returned that Motorola/Google Nexus 6 and went right back to my 2013 model HTC One, which has everything I’ll ever need and then some, including the same smooth and eye-grabbing Android OS that every other high-end Android smartphone has. There was nothing – I repeat, nothing  - outside of an enhanced screen size for e-reading and for my rare forays into mobile video that necessitated a switch to the Nexus 6. Only irrational smartphone lust.

The AT&T version Nexus 6 doesn’t have an easy way to switch to the phone to vibrate; it plays a horrifically ear-splitting AT&T “sonic brand” at boot-up that can’t be removed; and it’s so enormous and unwieldy in a pocket that I constantly anticipated “…or are you just happy to see me?” repartee from moronic strangers every time I stepped out the door. Once I returned to my beloved, two-year-old HTC One, the one I should have never forsaken, it became clear to me that we’ve collectively reached something approximating the end of the line.

If that’s true, it's tempting to wonder if smartphone makers will build an accelerated forced obsolescence into their plans, sending iOS and Android upgrades out to devices so frequently that they botch or significantly slow phones that were only released 12-18 months ago. Or if there’s an era of further retrenchment and OEM fall-out in coming years. Certainly the non-affluent, non-Western world has a longer road to travel before smartphone lust plays itself out; countries like India, Indonesia and Brazil are only now developing the mobile networks that match the personal incomes that match the price points of the highest-end devices.

Yet smartphone makers may have become victims of their own success. Add in the undeniable backlash coming from all corners of the universe to our gadget-obsessed, tuned-out, head-buried-in-the-phone manners and mores, last seen in the most recent crosswalk you traversed, and you have the makings of a shift in society. The signs are clear. The smartphone industry’s next series of failed launches will be their emperor-has-no-clothes moments, and the slow decline of smartphone lust will begin its very public death throes.