Here are my predictions for 2016. Many of them are fairly benign while others are fairly bold. I was 8/10 last year. How will 2016 fare? Let’s take a look:
Microsoft releases an x86 phone. There is growing evidence Microsoft is working on this. And given what Microsoft has done with Continuum, it makes sense. I have expanded more on why I think it is great idea in another post. But I think Microsoft announces a true x86 phone before the Christmas shopping season.
Either Dell or HP will release a “pocket PC.” Along the lines of the prior prediction, I think there is a chance either Dell or HP will release a true pocket PC. Basically, it will be an x86 phone you dock onto a monitor. Using Continuum, you then have a full PC. It will be an x86 device and so legacy programs will run while in desktop mode and will function as a cell phone when undocked. Expect it to be a limited run and marketed as just another computer with an LTE radio.
Microsoft’s Surface sales will exceed Apple Macbook sales. Surface Pro 4 and Surface Book are smash successes. I honestly think the only thing limiting their mass adoption is Microsoft’s limited inventory. But there is obviously pent up demand for a highly polished Windows-based device and Microsoft has released the best device for it. With Lumia exceeding iPad sales, it is not unreasonable to see Surface exceeding Macbook.
Microsoft’s market cap will jump Apple. They are already pretty close. With the way both are currently trending, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Microsoft could reclaim the technology crown. Some of Apple’s recent design decisions have people questioning their innovative skills. I noticed a crack in their corporate culture’s foundation a couple years ago and it appears to be expanding. With Microsoft showing new life, this one may be inevitable.
Nintendo NX will launch before Christmas at a price lower than Xbox One and PS4. I still put the official reveal to be at E3, but rumors have it to be at specs just under the current gen and so should be priced below the current gen. However, Zelda will look amazing and Nintendo’s attention to detail will be on full display such that games may actually look better than what Xbox and PlayStation can put out.
Windows 10 usage base will exceed iOS usage base. At an estimated 200 million users, Windows 10 already dwarfs OSX. If the trend continues, Windows 10 could be on more devices by July than iOS. While Apple enjoys intense customer loyalty, they also have intense customer loyalty. One million iPhone sales to one million iPhone users every year still only equals one million active iOS devices. While obviously they sell more then one million iPhones, Apple is having trouble growing their usage base. They see record sales but they are to the same people. By contrast, Windows 10 is growing.
Next OSX version will be built on iOS. Microsoft has moved Xbox, Windows, and Windows Phone to the Windows 10 core. Google is moving Chromium to the Android core. That leaves Apple as the sole dual-OS firm left in the game and the usage share of OSX leaves a lot to be desired. That’s why Iprognosticated in September the belief that Apple will eventually kill OSX in favor of iOS. By doing so, Apple brings a massive iOS app library to the otherwise ignored OSX devices while following the market trend of combining operating systems.
Verizon announces departure from consumer market. We have seen carriers remove the two-year contract in favor of a debt-purchase option. We also see Apple, Google, and Microsoft all selling their devices directly to the public. I expect Verizon will announce its intent to shut down its retail operations in favor of a more device-agnostic approach. Rather than deal with the costs associated with selling devices, Verizon will let Apple and company do it themselves. I’d be willing to bet the vast majority of iPhone sales still occur at Apple stores. Verizon is probably willing to bet that too. Resellers such as Target, Best Buy, and Walmart each have the ability to activate a phone on Verizon’s network and so the need for a Verizon store front diminishes. Better to use that money on the network itself.
Google is hit with an anti-trust penalty. Having not learned from Microsoft’s mistake, Google continues to approach Europe like it does the US. Unfortunately, the governing body of Europe is not as friendly to Google as the FTC. There is growing evidence that Google could be hit with an anti-trust decision in Europe. I think the move to Alphabet was an attempt by Google to limit the damage by restructuring how the business operates. It won’t be enough for Europe and Google will get slammed.
A cable company announces departure from TV. There is probably a list of valid reasons why consumers are cutting the cord. But with TV costs increasing and streaming options becoming higher quality, I expect a major cable provider to announce their intent to stop offering cable TV. I have seen it myself where the local cable company says it is installing internet service only at almost 90% of their customers. Its a situation where cable TV becomes a distraction from their majority business. Not to mention cable TV itself does tie up bandwidth. It won’t be Comcast; but it will be bigger than you think.
And there you have it. My predictions for 2016. How close will I be? We’ll come back in December and see. Have a great year.
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