Who is this Apple, and why are they after my wrist?

Who is this Apple, and why are they after my wrist?

Apple owns my front left jeans pocket. 

It wasn’t always that way. That used to be where I kept loose change, at the ready whenever the urge for a soda struck. Earlier cell phones (a couple of Nokia candy bars and a beloved HTC handset) went in a holster that hung on my belt, leaving the pocket free. But the iPhone was so slim that it just seemed, well, wrong to keep it in a holster.

So all those coins went to live with my keys in the right pocket, and the iPhone took up sole residence in the left.

 Now, Apple wants my wrist. They’re not going to get it.

 At least not right now. Here’s why:

It was said of Microsoft in their heyday that one was wise to skip the first two versions of any product they offered. Version 1 was market control: it was a marker that put everyone on notice:
“We intend to control this space.” Version 2 was market research. It might contain features and functions that wouldn’t survive to the next generation, but it would let you know where they were going with the product. Version 3 was golden: it was the truly “finished” product.

Windows is the best example of that. Version 1 (the version with tiled windows that didn’t overlap) told customers, “You don’t need a Mac – Microsoft does GUIs, too.” Version 2 said, “Here is where we’re going…how do you like it?” Microsoft Windows version 3 was the real thing, the version that established Microsoft Windows as a serious GUI player, to the extent that when they finally released Windows NT, the first version was…you guessed it…version 3.1, to match the then-shipping version of DOS-based Windows. (Never mind that WinNT 3.1 was really itself a version 1 product, to be succeeded by the market-research version (NT3.5) and the finished product (NT4.0), the one you really wanted to use at the time).

Apple does things differently: they generally take only two iterations before they’ve figured out what to sell. They do that by skipping step 2: they effectively let everyone else do their market research, and so when they’re ready to claim their territory, what they come out with is pretty mature. Apple seldom builds the first article of any product category.

Think about it: the first iPod was not the first music player, but it was instantly the music player to beat, and rendered all others second-rate. Don’t believe me? Imagine the kid on Christmas day who wanted an iPod but got a…well, anything else. It would not have been pretty. Still, the first-generation iPod was too expensive, too limited (it required a FireWire connection to a Mac for syncing, for pity’s sake) and used a finicky mechanical scroll wheel. The second generation dropped the mechanical scroll wheel in favor of a touch wheel and added Windows support through third-party software, and the third generation added USB support and full, native Windows compatibility.

Same thing with the iPhone: it wasn’t the first smart phone (in fact, the smart phone category was well-established by the time the first iPhone came out in 2007), but instantly the iPhone changed what it meant to be a smart phone. Still, the first generation iPhone used only EDGE data even though 3G was already pretty well established at the time, it had scant storage (4GB or 8GB) and was expensive (sound familiar?) And no third-party applications. Wait until the iPhone 3G, and you got the 3G data, 16GB of storage and a GPS radio for location services, and apps. At the time, that’s the iPhone you wanted. And on contract with a carrier (in the United States, AT&T only at that time) the price was about half the original iPhone.

What about the iPad? Not the very first tablet, but the first to get it right: the first generation iPad was a miracle: 9.7 inch screen, multitouch interface, ran apps quick and easy – it looked like something one could embrace, if so inclined. But fast-forward just one year, and the iPad 2 came out: slender, faster, with two cameras (the original iPad had none) and “smart covers” – a cool system that automatically put the iPad to sleep when you covered the screen. That’s the one that you wanted – and subsequent iterations of the iPad have been refinements (better screen, narrower bezels, new connector) of that basic concept.

Now, what about the watch? This has all the earmarks of a first-generation Apple product. Not the first smart watch, but a game changer, for sure: sapphire glass touch interface, “taptic” force-touch display, the whole “digital crown” concept and software that sure doesn’t look first-generation. But it’s a beast – not the very biggest watch I’ve ever seen, but by no means svelte – and the battery lasts barely a day. And the early reviews talk about how laggy the software feels sometimes – you raise your wrist, do a two-count, and then the screen wakes up. Or doesn’t, sometimes.

In other words, as much of a digital marvel as it is, this generation of the Apple Watch seems to be Apple’s way of doing what Microsoft did when they wanted to establish themselves as a player: they staked their claim to a market segment by releasing a product that was finished, but not yet polished. So much about the Apple Watch screams, “go away!” First, the requirement to be tethered to an iPhone – you’re an Android user? Go away! And the price: sure, $350 for the Sport version with a rubber watchband isn’t too expensive, but get to the one you really want – stainless with a leather band or some kind of metal bracelet – and you’re in the $1,000 neighborhood? The price of a couple of iPads?! And anything gold-colored starts at $10,000?!! Go away!

Here’s what’s about to happen: Apple will sell millions of these things to buyers eager to get in on the Next Big Thing, and the launch, and the product in general, will be a success by any measure. Next year, they’ll come out with the next generation Apple Watch. It will be more slender, it will have better battery life, and it won’t require an iPhone to tether. They’ll introduce new case options: some kind of gold-colored watch well south of $10,000, and probably others as well. And the software won’t lag. And it’ll probably have more sensors. In short, it’s the one you want.

Oh, yes, they’ll still sell a luxury version that costs more than $10,000. Remember how they work: they put a stake in the ground, then execute on the plan. They’ve put the luxury watchmakers on notice: we’re playing on your turf now. My guess is that they’ll sell a few Edition models this year (early reports indicate that the Sport model is, unsurprisingly, the overwhelming best seller), but the real action happens next year: I expect some versions of next year’s “Edition” watch (or whatever they call it then) to be perhaps more expensive than this year’s, with many more options.

Expect to buy gently used first-generation Apple watches next year at a steep discount. Or, more likely, not buy: the second generation Apple Watch is the one you want.